‪Duterte: A Lunatic President or a Genius Strategist?‬

‪By: Jun Avelino‬
‪10 October 2017‬

‪Duterte’s expletives against the US, the EU and the UN have made his tongue the center of the universe where global media has given much focus on, eagerly awaiting for the next blurt of swearing against the West. Being called a boon or a bane, he couldn’t care less because he is doing this intentionally and for a hell of good reasons. America cannot afford to lose Philippines as an important ally in the Asia Pacific due to its strategic location in complementing the presence of Japan (another US ally) to neutralize the expansionist behavior of Beijing, particularly in the militarization of the south china sea which is important to the west. Getting rid of the Philippines in the equation of the region’s balance of power will cripple America’s commercial, political and military grip in the Asia Pacific, thereby paving the way for China’s control with the backing of Russia. The west cannot afford such a scenario happening. On the other hand, China’s expansionist policy is being hampered by Philippines claim over part of the south china sea (or West Philippine sea). Aside from going into war as an option, diplomatic negotiation between the two is warranted. But being an ally of Russia, China will never negotiate with the Philippines if the latter remains under the influence of America.‬

‪Duterte wants to use this unique position to get the best terms of alliances from both sides of the fence, hence, the need for an independent foreign policy for the country. But having existed under the shadow of Uncle Sam for nearly a century now, Duterte needs to erase that stigma of being the puppet of America in the South East Asian region. Doing so is such a gargantuan task as US has been used to having Philippine Presidents of their choice which has kept their control and influence over our affairs unabated since our independence. As the anti-thesis (re Philo on Dialectical Materialism) to the existing order (thesis), Duterte has to destroy the whole gamut of influence and control America has in our socio-political affairs and he has to do it brutally with precision and speed (synthesis). No, Duterte never plans to leave America as an ally. He just wants the terms of alliance to be reviewed and be mutually agreed upon between two co-equal states for which we can never expect America to oblige itself given its continued treatment to our country as its vassal which hugely depends on their aids and trading relations. They think, without America, Philippines will not survive, a proposition shared by their Filipino cohorts who continue to salivate on that beautiful ass of Uncle Sam. And such mind set is best exemplified on the concerted move to replace him as manifested on the attacks and criticisms Duterte is getting from the US government, European Union and the UN in collaboration with their local minions to discredit him locally using EJKs as a camouflage.‬

‪These foreign attacks however proved useful to Duterte when he capitalized them in sending his strong revolting message across the globe. By calling Obama “son-of-a bitch”; “he can go to hell”; “America as hypocrites” “Fuck you, EU and UN”; Bank Ki Moon of UN is fool”, he has actually brought US and the two international bodies to a showdown before the eyes of the world as you can see in the international broadsheets and other global media outlets. Who do you think blinked first? In foreign relations, the gravity of insult issued by Duterte against the head of the world’s most powerful state could have resulted to an outright severing of diplomatic ties. Our ambassador in Washington DC could have been declared persona-non-grata and sent home. But amidst Duterte’s pronouncements including that of reviewing the legality of EDCA and ending the RP-US Military Exercises as response to the US attacks on his drug war policy, in a pacifying statement, the US Pentagon Spokesman Pater Cook says, "We will continue to work closely with the government of the Philippines to address any concerns they may have." America bas therefore read the real message of Duterte beyond the harsh rhetoric. With this development, Philippines can now bring US to a negotiating table to agree on new terms of alliance that is mutually beneficial between the two co-equal states. In the same manner, China and Russia will now look at the Philippines as an independent state capable of negotiating on terms of diplomatic ties on its own sans the shadow of the America.‬

‪We all know that China is a bully country based on our experience with them in our own backyard (re China’s 9-dash line claim in south china sea). But China bullied us only because we allied ourselves with America and hence, both Russia and China look at Philippines as a threat to their interest. If war between the West and Russia erupts, we will be the first to be pulverized by China. And hell yeah, America will watch our annihilation from the distance. What is awkward in our current position is that US bullied us too despite our being in alliance with them. So why allow ourselves to be used as a pawn of the two bullies? Both of these countries know that our position in the South China Sea will affect the balance of power in the area. And Duterte’s knowledge of his geopolitics and wide experience in unorthodox diplomatic maneuvering have paid off in a sense that he has successfully placed the entire world at the tip of his tongue (and middle finger too). If you read beyond the harsh rhetoric, Duterte has taken the whole world for a ride in bringing Philippines at the center stage of diplomacy in the South China Sea, not as a pawn of either bullies, but a stabilizer of peace in the area. And we can only play that role effectively if the world will look at us as an independent state with dignity and respect. This is why Duterte wants to open an alliance with China and Russia without abandoning its friendship with America – a strategic position that will give Philippines the benefits of both worlds.‬

‪So you think Duterte is a lunatic President? Well, think again‬